A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
